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Recently, the storyline of US tariff imposition has seen new developments. "On February 26 local time, US President Donald Trump stated during a cabinet meeting that the US will impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Mexico and non-energy goods imported from Canada starting April 2. Trump also mentioned that tariffs on EU goods exported to the US are expected to be announced soon."
According to SMM's analysis of the main countries exporting copper cathode to the US, from 2020 to 2024, Chile accounted for approximately 70% of the US's copper cathode imports annually. Mexico ranked second, but its share has been declining year by year since 2020; the decrease has been replaced by increases from Canada and Peru. Additionally, with the rise in copper cathode production in the DRC and its relative price advantage, the US significantly increased its imports of copper cathode from the DRC after 2023.
Data Source: SMM
For copper semis (HS codes 7405-7412), the US's annual import volume has been increasing year by year, reaching nearly 600,000 mt in 2024. In terms of import share, Canada accounted for approximately 38% of the US's copper semis imports, followed by Germany, Vietnam, Mexico, and others. Notably, although the direct share of copper semis imported from China to the US is less than 5%, a significant portion of China's copper semis products are exported to Vietnam, Thailand, Mexico, and other countries before being re-exported to the US.
Data Source: SMM
From the perspective of the tariff storyline, the US's tariff hikes on Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as the initiation of a Section 232 investigation on copper, will have a certain stimulating effect on domestic copper consumption. However, considering domestic capacity and a series of policies such as environmental protection measures, the reliance on foreign imports is unlikely to decrease significantly.
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